UFC Fight Night 242 breakdown: Can ex-title challenger Gilbert Burns knock off Sean Brady?

Considering where both Burns and Brady have traditionally been most dangerous from, winning the wrestling will be paramount for both parties this weekend.

Although it should be obvious with his brick house build, Brady has made a reputation for himself as an insanely strong positional grappler who feels like a gorilla in closed quarters.

Wielding some serviceable takedown chops, Brady demonstrates a solid attack process, particularly when working from a bodylock. Whether Brady is manipulating a standing leg or is looking to hit shuck-bys toward the back, the Renzo Gracie representative chains his moves well when working along the fence, flowing from takedowns to positional rides like clockwork.

And once Brady establishes one of his favored positions, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt is both patient and methodical when it comes to bottlenecking opposition into his preferred submissions. However, I’ll be curious to see how deep Brady is looking to take grappling exchanges given the skills of his current counterpart.

Burns, who is the more accoladed submission grappler on paper, will be one of the few fighters in the division who should be able to compete with Brady irrespective of any size or strength differences.

I say this all the time, but not all black belts are created equal, and Burns is a prime example of that. An IBJJF world champion both in and out of the gi, Burns was able to translate his brand of grappling quickly into the MMA space.

More importantly, Burns was not afraid to work with wrestling influences from standouts like Greg Jones to catch wrestling coaches like Neil Melanson. Integrating these crucial styles into his repertoire, there are now little-to-no positions that Burns is not comfortable or capable of working from.

Whether he is defending takedowns along the fence and striking off the breaks or hitting sweet trips and chaining takedowns of his own, Burns’ wrestling improvements remain to be one the things that quietly impresses me most. However, as underrated as that part of his game may be, taking down Brady could be difficult given his stout stature and solid scrambling abilities.

Even though I’m hoping to see some prolonged grappling exchanges between these two, I suspect that the interactions could be short and sweet (especially through the first half of the fight).

Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady odds

Despite the oddsmakers opening this fight as a pick’em, public money has come in on the American, listing Brady -186 and Burns +146 via FanDuel.

Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady prediction, pick

Mar 9, 2024; Miami, Florida, USA; Jack Della Maddalena (blue gloves) fights Gilbert Burns (red gloves) during UFC 299 at Kayesa Center. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

Although I lined this fight closer to the opening odds, I’m not shocked to see MMA gamblers, once again, looking to fade the older fighter.

Burns has certainly accrued a lot of combat sports miles if you include his grappling experience and I wouldn’t push back on anyone who considers the former title challenger to be in the post-primes stages of his career. That said, I don’t think that the bottom has shown signs of dropping out just yet from this battle-tested Brazilian.

Aside from the fact that Burns has only lost to the best names in this division, the 38-year-old veteran has shown steady progress in everything from his fighting skills to his strength and conditioning in this latter stretch at 170 pounds.

If Brady is unable to neutralize Burns’ submission and scrambling prowess with his blanketing rides and wrestling, then I suspect we’ll be in for a tit-for-tat striking match between two grapplers. And if that’s the sort of fight get this weekend, then I have to slightly favor Burns.

Not only is Burns the more potent striker and proven product, but I see his counter right hand being particularly effective in this fight considering Brady’s past propensities of having his left hook countered. Add in the fact that Brady still seems hardwired to strike off the backfoot, and I suspect that the smaller octagon will be kinder to the Burns side of the equation given the kind of chaos it encourages.

I’m excited to see what kind of fight this brings out of Brady, but I can’t help but see Burns’ counters having a ton of play in this fight. The pick is Burns by knockout in Round 2.

Prediction: Burns inside the distance

Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady start time, where to watch

As the main event, Cannonier and Borralho are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 10 p.m. ET. The entire card streams live on ESPN+.